In 2021, the market demand for LED displays will grow significantly, reaching a global scale of 6.8 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of more than 23%. It is worth noting that with the expansion of China's demand, nearly 40% of the global display screens are in China.
Channel marketing has further explored the market demand, making it the main sales means to replace engineering marketing. In the past two years, the sales of LED display screens in the channel category have increased significantly. After the establishment of the channel model, the strength of the brand is prominent, and the leading enterprises can use the brand advantage to expand the market share.
Against this background, the industry concentration has further improved, and the market share of the top ten manufacturers will increase to 71% in 2021, which is expected to continue to grow this year.
Driven by terminal demand, the demand for upstream products of LED display increased year on year
In the chip field, the market size of LED chips will jump to 3.6 billion US dollars in 2021. The rare 45% growth rate is mainly attributed to the growth of lighting, automotive LED, display screen and other fields. Among them, the market size of LED display chips is close to 700 million US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 60%.
Although the shipment of MiniLED display screen chips was less than expected, the growth trend was good. According to the statistics of TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the total shipment of 4-inch MiniLED display epitaxial chips will increase by nearly 50% in 2021 based on the chip side. MiniLED chips are not only used in markets below P1.0, but also introduced into P1.2 and even P1.5 high-end markets.
The concentration of LED display chip industry continues to rise, and the market share of the five major manufacturers will reach over 90% by 2021. With the rapid development of the display screen chip market in recent years, the number of manufacturers entering this field has gradually increased and the market competition has intensified.
At present, there are more and more manufacturers in the direct display field, such as Guoxing, Kaixun, Zhongjing, Zhaochi and other new manufacturers. In the past, San'an, Huacan, Jingdian, Qianzhao and Shilanwei were the main manufacturers. The channel LED display chip market is even worse. Due to its relatively low specification requirements and low threshold for new entrants, the market competition is expected to gradually increase.
In the field of packaging, the global LED packaging market in 2021 will be 17.65 billion US dollars, up 15.4% year on year, mainly driven by automotive LEDs, lighting and LED displays.
Among them, the LED display packaging market scale is about 1.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 10% of the entire packaging field. From 2020 to 2021, after the Sino US trade friction, the industrial concentration has been further improved, with the industrial concentration of the top 10 enterprises rising by 10% to 84%. In the future, with the gradual expansion of production capacity, the industrial concentration will be further improved. For example, manufacturers such as Guoxing and Crystal Platform have a large capacity expansion recently.
With the continuous innovation of technology, the application field of small spacing is gradually expanding, and many manufacturers are attracted to enter the LED display field, such as Ruifeng Optoelectronics, Hongli Zhihui and other manufacturers that used to focus on white light. After the emergence of MiniLED display technology, new enterprises such as Zhongqi and Lijing Micro also entered the field of packaging. In the future, after the rise of Mini/Micro LED, the original pattern of the packaging field may be broken, and the industry concentration will be diluted by new manufacturers.
LED display drives the IC field, with both quantity and price rising. In 2021, the market size of LED display driven IC will exceed 700 million US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 1.2 times. This is mainly due to the sharp increase in shipments in 2021, which will drive the price rise, and IC manufacturers will also become the hot dark horse in the 2021 stock market. At present, drive IC is still a highly concentrated industry, with the top five manufacturers accounting for about 89% of the market.
The technology continues to improve, and the demand for new applications gradually rises
LED display technology continues to develop, and new applications are also being developed. In the next few years, virtual photography, conference all-in-one machine and naked eye 3D billboards are expected to continue to make efforts in the field of LED display.
Virtual shooting includes film shooting and TV/drama/music/advertisement shooting. LED display is mainly used to replace green screen shooting.
In 2021, the virtual photography LED display market will be about 1.5 billion to 2 billion. Although the market is small, and there are few major manufacturers, the industry concentration is high, it is expected that this field has huge potential. At present, the main manufacturers of virtual shooting LED display screen include SONY, Samsung, Redio (Zhouming), Youda (AUO), etc.
LED conference all-in-one machine products, affected by the government budget in the second half of 2021, did not grow as expected. At present, the products at this stage are mainly between 100 inches and 200 inches; The mainstream of point spacing is still between P1.2 and P1.9. At present, the all-in-one machine has little demand for spacing, and its pursuit of cost performance is on the high side. At present, it mainly focuses on government, large state-owned enterprises and other customers, while the civil market will be an important market growth point in the future.
Outdoor naked eye 3D LED display products have also developed rapidly in recent years. The naked eye 3D display screen is not just a screen, it should be combined with supporting services such as content design and installation design.
Opportunities and challenges coexist for LED display in the future. The excavation and development of emerging fields cannot be separated from the efforts of major manufacturers and the support of the government. In the LED display industry with a high degree of industrial concentration, the profit growth point of each enterprise lies in the continuous innovation of technology and the layout in new application fields. With the continuous growth of production capacity of small pitch and Mini/Micro LEDs, as well as the progress of related technologies such as massive transfer, it is expected that the cost will gradually decrease, and more application fields will be developed one after another.
技术不断进步，新应用需求逐步起量LED显示屏技术仍持续发展，新应用领域也不断被开发出来。未来几年，虚拟拍摄、会议一体机和裸眼3D广告牌等有望继续在LED显示屏领域发力。虚拟拍摄包括电影拍摄和电视/戏剧/音乐/广告拍摄两个应用方向，LED显示屏主要应用在替代绿幕拍摄。2021年，虚拟拍摄LED显示屏市场大约在15-20亿的规模，虽然市场规模不大，而且主要的生产厂商也较少，产业集中度很高，但预期该领域潜力巨大。目前虚拟拍摄LED显示屏主要厂商包括：SONY、三星、雷迪奥 (洲明)、友达 (AUO) 等。LED会议一体机产品，在2021年下半年受政府预算影响，增速未达预期。目前该阶段产品主要集中在100英寸以上到200英寸之间；点间距主流仍在P1.2到P1.9之间，目前一体机对间距需求并不大，对性价比追求偏高，目前主要以政府、大型国企等客户为主，而民用市场将是未来重要的市场增长点。户外裸眼3D LED显示屏产品，近年也发展火热。裸眼3D显示屏并不仅仅是一块屏，其要结合内容设计、安装设计等的配套服务。未来LED显示屏机会与挑战并存。新兴领域的挖掘与发展，离不开各大厂商的努力与政府的扶持。在高产业集中度的LED显示屏行业，各企业的利益增长点在于技术的不断创新以及在新应用领域的布局。随着小间距及Mini/Micro LED 的产能不断增长，以及巨量转移等相关技术的进步，预期成本会逐渐走低，更多的应用领域会相继被开发出来。